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Canada


Thérèse-De Blainville


Latest projection: April 21, 2024
BQ safe hold
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Thérèse-De Blainville 44% ± 7%▲ 29% ± 7%▼ 13% ± 4%▼ 8% ± 4%▼ 4% ± 3%▼ BQ 2021 40.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thérèse-De Blainville >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | April 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 29% ± 7% CPC 13% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 44% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Thérèse-De Blainville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC NDP BQ

Recent electoral history | Thérèse-De Blainville



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 41.8% 40.9% 44% ± 7% LPC 36.0% 35.3% 29% ± 7% CPC 9.0% 11.0% 13% ± 4% NDP 7.5% 7.3% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.6% 2.7% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.6% 1.9% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.